$15 million in funding has been utilized to generate an impressive $658 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)!
🚀 Klaviyo, which recently declared its intent to go public, has revealed remarkable Software as a Service (SaaS) Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The company is experiencing a 50% annual growth rate and achieving a commendable 60 on the Rule of 40!
Klaviyo’s growth and efficiency figures are exceptionally impressive, but the question lingers: are they sustainable?
Klaviyo, specializing in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) marketing automation (email, SMS, and push notifications) within the Shopify ecosystem, boasts an Annual Contract Value (ACV) of approximately $5,000. Its primary go-to-market strategy involves a Product-Led Growth (PLG) approach with land and expand motions.
𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵:
– The September 22 price increases significantly contributed to growth, evident in the Net New ARR spike of $104 million in December 22.
– The impact of these price increases on ARR was immediate, as Klaviyo’s customers predominantly operate on monthly contracts.
To gauge the effect of these price increases, clues lie in the filings:
– The S1 document states that price increases constituted a “mid-teens” percentage of incremental revenue over the Last Twelve Months (LTM), equating to $33 million of the total LTM Net New ARR ($222 million).
– This implies a contribution of +8% to the Year-over-Year (YoY) growth of the company ($33 million / $436 million June 22 ARR).
– When normalizing this impact, considering one-off nature of price increases, the YoY growth falls to 43%.
Additionally, the customer base grew by only 24%.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵?
➡️ Considering that price rises are typically one-off, and sustaining such high levels of ACV growth may be challenging, the prediction is that growth will trend towards the 35-40% range in the coming 12 months. (Management has not provided guidance, so the accuracy of this prediction remains uncertain until the roadshow!)
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆?
Cash flow margins have remained robust over the last two quarters, reaching a Last Twelve Months (LTM) margin of 10%. This is driven by a consistent Sales and Marketing (S&M) spend over the last four quarters and an improving gross margin (due to higher overall ACVs). However, achieving 40% growth next year would necessitate adding around $263 million in net new ARR, likely requiring an investment in S&M spend, considering the declining magic ratio observed in the last two quarters.
➡️ Nevertheless, given the minimal cash consumption since inception, Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins are estimated to be maintained in the 0-10% range.
𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲, 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗱?
Given the substantial Total Addressable Market (TAM) and top-tier metrics, it’s challenging to envision this not being priced at the upper end of SaaS company valuations (10-13x ARR).